MARKET WEATHER STATION · ROBINHOOD CHAIN
Like a meteorological service for the sky, Muson observes on-chain pools every few seconds, publishes probabilistic forecasts across five horizons, then scores every forecast against reality. No prediction ever disappears.
INCOMING FRONT · $MUSON ON PONS V2
01 · CURRENT CONDITIONS
02 · FORECAST BULLETIN
Probabilities that price ends above, within, or below a fixed scoring band. Big numbers = calibrated from real outcomes; small print = Vane's raw output.
Fixed scoring bands (±0.1% @1m … ±1% @30m) · not a price guarantee · overlapping forecasts are correlated.
03 · RADAR
Live price trace + band cone for the selected horizon. Shaded area = scoring band, not a confidence interval.
04 · VERIFICATION
Meteorology is judged by verification, not conviction. Vane's accuracy is compared against a momentum baseline and an always-within-band baseline — on the same market and target times.
| Horizon | N | Raw | Calibrated | Momentum | Always-band | Cal. Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting for the first resolved forecast… | ||||||
| Time | Hz | Called | Outcome | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | ||||
Weather forecasts sometimes miss — and that is exactly what makes them honest: every single one is verified. Muson treats markets with the same discipline.
Muson